How Significant is Apple’s iPad?
Earlier today I had posted a status update on Twitter/Facebook/Linked-in asking people what they thought the implications would be of iPad-like tablets over a 3 year period. Not surprisingly, many responded that they didn’t really have a need for another device, and couldn’t really see the demand being of any material consequence.
I for one strongly disagree. I believe that iPad’s significance is substantially underestimated, largely because we are thinking about the current set of announced features rather than the significance of the product category. In three years, I predict that the iPad will comprise of over 10% of Apple’s revenues. The killer apps for the iPad will be personal TV, video conferencing, low-end gaming and short-form reading (such as news papers, articles, web-browsing, etc.) among others. I don’t think long form reading such as books will be successful on the Apple platform unless they adopt a dual screen device, with one screen that uses e-ink. The current screen’s refresh rate would create too much fatigue for lengthy reading experiences. That market will belong squarely to the eBook readers such as Amazon’s Kindle, Sony and may be even the Nook.
It will also allow cell carriers (AT&T, Verizon, etc.) to better compete with cable providers.
So while there seems to be a lot of criticism regarding the significance of the iPad, it is probably a category starter. Tablets might not be their idea, but Apple’s crisp definition of the category is something that the entire technology industry will benefit from.
Thoughts?Trends and Predictions